Updating rogers nokia 7500
The results, expressed as the expected return periods, are shown in Table I for various categories of hurricanes.These probability estimates were constructed in 1999.According to a recent examination, in the 28-year period from 1981 to 2009, warming in the North Atlantic has averaged 0.264°C per decade, roughly twice the global average.Rising sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, the driving force behind the increasing frequency of intense hurricanes, explain why backward-looking historical probability estimates, such as those generated with the NHC’s approach, probably do not provide adequate guidance with respect to current and future risks.Even while these efforts are under way, however, agencies responsible for weather probability assessment should update their estimates, incorporating the best available scientific climate projections that provide guidance regarding future conditions.Uncertainties in these projected weather frequencies should be frankly acknowledged and explained.High winds would do severe damage, partly by blowing dangerous debris through city streets.The risk is real enough that the city government in 2008 created the New York City Panel on Climate Change and the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force to develop a strategy for preparing for extreme weather events.
The methodology used for New York City and other coastal regions counts the occurrence of hurricanes of specific intensities (defined in terms of maximum sustained wind speeds) striking within a 75-mile radius during the historical record of approximately 100 years.
In addition to their best estimates, agencies should also present plausible uncertainty bands around those probabilities.
Finally, critical agencies should be encouraged or directed to use these revised probability estimates in their risk assessments and investment planning as an important step toward anticipatory adaptation to climate change.
In the North Atlantic between New York and North Carolina, sea level has also risen more rapidly than the global average, at rates between 0.24 and 0.44 centimeters per decade.
These scientific findings and measurements can be used to project hurricane frequency estimates into the future.
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Research is under way to address this problem but should be accelerated, and efforts to improve climate change forecasts at regional and local scales should be intensified.